Very good point. I have watched many bubble cycles come and go in my career across all areas and there is a pattern to them. The way Sam Altman talks is typical. In this case, the unintended consequences are much higher. It is a deliberate overspending as it also pushes everyone else out using these scaling arguments as an excuse. It is …
Very good point. I have watched many bubble cycles come and go in my career across all areas and there is a pattern to them. The way Sam Altman talks is typical. In this case, the unintended consequences are much higher. It is a deliberate overspending as it also pushes everyone else out using these scaling arguments as an excuse. It is what regulations will probably reflect as these players will guide in that direction. The more people that leave this space, the less creativity there is. It is what we see in many segments of the market today. Bigger companies in medical technology space always knew, for example, they needed the creativity of the smaller players to keep innovation going. They still know this but the gap size between big and small is so large that this is starting to break down. The “market” is up so much, but the contributors get smaller and smaller. It is very hard to get these smaller companies funded today but they are critical to the health of the whole system. What will we say a few years from now? No more recessions but we only have 20 companies in the index and everyone else is on a government subsidy. That is an exaggeration of course. However, the point is that Sam Altman’s way of looking at the world invites another perspective that is the opposite. How do we keep creative flow going? It is not big vs small. It is not centralized vs decentralized. It is not open vs closed. It is more about “and”-replacing the “or” with “and” and you automatically move from linear to nonlinear just by changing one word. That word is not in the vocabulary of the Sam Altmans of the world. But is that his fault or the system we have come to rely on? We have a global “or” economic system. He is just playing that game well. AGI capabilities require “and” thinking and innovation. And that way of defining AI will be much healthier for the world by definition.
Very good point. I have watched many bubble cycles come and go in my career across all areas and there is a pattern to them. The way Sam Altman talks is typical. In this case, the unintended consequences are much higher. It is a deliberate overspending as it also pushes everyone else out using these scaling arguments as an excuse. It is what regulations will probably reflect as these players will guide in that direction. The more people that leave this space, the less creativity there is. It is what we see in many segments of the market today. Bigger companies in medical technology space always knew, for example, they needed the creativity of the smaller players to keep innovation going. They still know this but the gap size between big and small is so large that this is starting to break down. The “market” is up so much, but the contributors get smaller and smaller. It is very hard to get these smaller companies funded today but they are critical to the health of the whole system. What will we say a few years from now? No more recessions but we only have 20 companies in the index and everyone else is on a government subsidy. That is an exaggeration of course. However, the point is that Sam Altman’s way of looking at the world invites another perspective that is the opposite. How do we keep creative flow going? It is not big vs small. It is not centralized vs decentralized. It is not open vs closed. It is more about “and”-replacing the “or” with “and” and you automatically move from linear to nonlinear just by changing one word. That word is not in the vocabulary of the Sam Altmans of the world. But is that his fault or the system we have come to rely on? We have a global “or” economic system. He is just playing that game well. AGI capabilities require “and” thinking and innovation. And that way of defining AI will be much healthier for the world by definition.